Pair #709

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 30155

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JTHO

Will Justin Thomas win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3255023

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:07:15Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Valspar Championship has no logical connection to winning the Masters. These are entirely separate tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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