Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VATO26-DTHO
Valero Texas Open: Will Davis Thompson finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 651
YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.4900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Davis Thompson finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-DTHO
Valero Texas Open: Will Davis Thompson finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1429
YES ask: 0.7000
NO ask: 0.3400
Last: 0.6300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Davis Thompson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:03:37Z
Reasoning: If Davis Thompson finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse is not true — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.7000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A