Pair #7081

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-ASMA

Will Alex Smalley lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4307

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-ASMA

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Smalley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 375

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:03:37Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 does not guarantee a top 5 finish (could collapse in Round 4), and finishing top 5 does not require having led after Round 3. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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