Pair #7080

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-ASMA

Will Alex Smalley lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4307

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-ASMA

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Smalley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6996

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.6200
Last: 0.4500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:03:37Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 3, and leading after Round 3 does not guarantee a top 10 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue