Pair #706

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BGRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2523

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Ben Griffin wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-BGRI

Valspar Championship: Will Ben Griffin finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8877

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ben Griffin finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:06:55Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 has no logical connection to finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -26.73% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -31.01% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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