Pair #705

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-BGRI

Will Ben Griffin win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 129845

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ben Griffin wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-BGRI

Valspar Championship: Will Ben Griffin finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8877

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ben Griffin finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:06:55Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valspar Championship means finishing 1st, which necessarily places Ben Griffin in the top 10. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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