Pair #7043

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-SFIS

Will Steven Fisk lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Steven Fisk
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1497

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Steven Fisk is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-SFIS

Will Steven Fisk win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Steven Fisk
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 510527

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Steven Fisk wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:02:45Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require leading after R3 (a player can come from behind in R4), and leading after R3 does not guarantee winning. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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