Pair #7042

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-BCAU

Will Bud Cauley lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 584

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

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Rules

If Bud Cauley is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-BCAU

Valero Texas Open: Will Bud Cauley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5601

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Bud Cauley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:02:45Z

Reasoning: Leading after R3 does not guarantee a top 5 finish (could collapse in R4), and finishing top 5 does not require leading after R3. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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