Pair #704

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BGRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3273

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-BGRI

Will Ben Griffin win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 129845

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:06:55Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major tournament, so winning it does not imply winning a major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -4.31% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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