Pair #7039

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-BCAU

Will Bud Cauley lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 584

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

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Rules

If Bud Cauley is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-BCAU

Will Bud Cauley win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 232091

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Bud Cauley wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:02:27Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valero Texas Open does not require leading after Round 3 — a player can come from behind in R4. Leading after R3 does not guarantee winning. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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