Pair #7035

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-RHIS

Will Ryo Hisatsune lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 23875

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryo Hisatsune is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-RHIS

Will Ryo Hisatsune win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1474307

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryo Hisatsune wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:02:27Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valero Texas Open does not require leading after Round 3 — a player can be behind after R3 and win in R4. Conversely, leading after R3 does not guarantee winning the tournament. Neither direction holds as a logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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