Pair #703

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-BGRI

Valspar Championship: Will Ben Griffin finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8877

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-BGRI

Will Ben Griffin win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2258339

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:06:55Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical connection to finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship. These are separate tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.7820
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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