Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPMATCH-26APR05FONDIA-FON
Will Joao Fonseca win the Fonseca vs Diallo : Round Of 64 match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Joao Fonseca
Expiration: 2026-04-05T12:00:00Z
Volume: 24479
YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Joao Fonseca wins the Fonseca vs Diallo professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXGRANDSLAMJFONSECA-26
Will Joao Fonseca win a major in 2026?
Series: KXGRANDSLAMJFONSECA
Entity: Joao Fonseca
Expiration: 2027-01-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 18740
YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.2300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Joao Fonseca wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:02:08Z
Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam major in 2026 has no logical connection to winning a Monte Carlo ATP match. These are completely separate competitions. Neither implies the other.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.4700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A