Pair #7019

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26APR05FONDIA-FON

Will Joao Fonseca win the Fonseca vs Diallo : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Joao Fonseca
Expiration: 2026-04-05T12:00:00Z
Volume: 24479

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joao Fonseca wins the Fonseca vs Diallo professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXGRANDSLAMJFONSECA-26

Will Joao Fonseca win a major in 2026?

Series: KXGRANDSLAMJFONSECA
Entity: Joao Fonseca
Expiration: 2027-01-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 18740

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joao Fonseca wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:02:08Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam major in 2026 has no logical connection to winning a Monte Carlo ATP match. These are completely separate competitions. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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