Pair #7017

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOMEN-26-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 1214820

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

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Rules

If Frances Tiafoe wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26APR05ATMTIA-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the Atmane vs Tiafoe : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-04-05T12:00:00Z
Volume: 4054

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Frances Tiafoe wins the Atmane vs Tiafoe professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:02:08Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open does not require winning a Monte Carlo Round of 64 match — these are entirely separate tournaments. No implication in either direction: winning a Monte Carlo match does not imply winning the French Open, and winning the French Open does not imply winning a Monte Carlo match.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5400
Days to maturity: 9
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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