Pair #7016

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-FTIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 556

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26APR05ATMTIA-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the Atmane vs Tiafoe : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-04-05T12:00:00Z
Volume: 4054

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins the Atmane vs Tiafoe professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:01:52Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not require winning a Monte Carlo Round of 64 match, and winning that Monte Carlo match does not imply winning a Grand Slam. These are entirely separate competitions.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -53.84% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -58.12% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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