Pair #7014

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-CRUU

Will Casper Ruud win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Casper Ruud
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2049

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Casper Ruud wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26APR05POPRUU-RUU

Will Casper Ruud win the Popyrin vs Ruud : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Casper Ruud
Expiration: 2026-04-05T12:00:00Z
Volume: 31455

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Casper Ruud wins the Popyrin vs Ruud professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:01:52Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not require winning this Monte Carlo Round of 64 match, and winning this Monte Carlo match does not imply winning a Grand Slam. These are entirely separate competitions.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -61.29% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7400
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -65.57% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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