Pair #7010

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-MKIM

Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Kim finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Michael Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1635

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Kim finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MKIM

Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2468

YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:01:52Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 5 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not require top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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