Pair #7002

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9557

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MPEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7163

YES ask: 0.7400
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:01:31Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 does not require leading after R3, and leading after R3 does not guarantee a top 20 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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