Pair #7000

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9557

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:01:31Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and leading after R3 of the Valero Texas Open (not a major) are independent events. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -4.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -9.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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