Pair #6999

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9557

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 898559

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:01:31Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and leading after R3 of the Valero Texas Open are completely independent events at different tournaments. No logical connection.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue