Pair #6997

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-ANOV

Will Andrew Novak lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1309

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Andrew Novak is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-ANOV

Valero Texas Open: Will Andrew Novak finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2318

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Andrew Novak finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:01:31Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 does not require leading after R3, and leading after R3 does not guarantee a top 10 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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