Pair #699

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BGRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2523

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-BGRI

Valspar Championship: Will Ben Griffin finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 803

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:06:55Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Valspar Championship (a non-major) has no logical connection to winning a major. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -12.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -16.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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