Pair #6989

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MMCN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2950

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-MMCN

Will Maverick McNealy lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 446

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:01:13Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Tour Major (Masters, PGA Championship, US Open, The Open) has no logical relationship to leading after Round 3 at the Valero Texas Open, which is not a major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.74% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -0.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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