Pair #6983

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8364

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-TFLE

Masters Tournament: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 57603

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:01:13Z

Reasoning: These are entirely different tournaments. Performance at the Masters has no logical bearing on Round 3 leadership at the Valero Texas Open, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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