Pair #6980

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 16575

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8364

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 has no logical connection to leading after Round 3 at the Valero Texas Open. These are independent events across different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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