Pair #6979

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-TFLE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5236

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8364

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors has no logical connection to leading after Round 3 at the Valero Texas Open, which is not a major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -12.11% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -16.32% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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