Pair #6978

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8364

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

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Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 9028598

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and leading after Round 3 at the Valero Texas Open are completely independent events across different tournaments. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0020
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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