Pair #6970

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JSPI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2647

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JSPI

Masters Tournament: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 57359

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require a top 5 at the Masters specifically (top 6-10 at Masters would still satisfy A). Finishing top 5 at the Masters alone does not guarantee top 10 in all 4 majors. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -6.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -10.49% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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