Pair #6968

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-CMOR

Masters Tournament: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 111144

YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMASTERS-26-CMOR

Collin Morikawa to compete in The Masters in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMASTERS
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 44744

YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2500
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa competes in The Masters in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:00:37Z

Reasoning: If Morikawa finishes top 20 at the Masters, he must have competed in the Masters. The reverse does not hold — competing does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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