Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-MAST26-CMOR
Masters Tournament: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 86628
YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-MAST26-CMOR
Masters Tournament: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 111144
YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:00:37Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.3900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A