Pair #6965

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CMOR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17854

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-CMOR

Masters Tournament: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 111144

YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:00:37Z

Reasoning: Winning a major could be at any of the four majors, not necessarily the Masters. If he wins the Masters that implies top 20, but winning another major does not imply anything about his Masters finish. No guaranteed logical link in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -60.91% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7300
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -65.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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