Pair #6964

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CMOR

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5470

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-CMOR

Masters Tournament: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 111144

YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:00:37Z

Reasoning: If Morikawa finishes top 10 in all 4 majors (including the Masters), he necessarily finishes top 10 at the Masters, which is within top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 at Masters alone does not imply top 10 in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -97.39% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7500
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -101.60% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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