Pair #6961

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-PREE

Masters Tournament: Will Patrick Reed finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 250581

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-PREE

Masters Tournament: Will Patrick Reed finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 299988

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1200
Last: 0.8800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:00:37Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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