Pair #6960

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 10393

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-PREE

Masters Tournament: Will Patrick Reed finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 250581

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:00:37Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major could be at any of the four majors, not necessarily the Masters. And winning the Masters would imply top 5 at Masters, but winning the Masters is not the only way KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PREE resolves YES. No guaranteed logical link in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -25.78% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -30.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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