Pair #6956

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26APR04JODUGO-JOD

Will Rafael Jodar win the Jodar vs Ugo Carabelli : Semifinal match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Rafael Jodar
Expiration: 2026-04-04T16:10:00Z
Volume: 14766

YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.3500
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rafael Jodar wins the Jodar vs Ugo Carabelli professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Marrakech Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26APR04JODUGO-1-JOD

Will Rafael Jodar win set 1 in the Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Rafael Jodar
Expiration: 2026-04-04T16:10:00Z
Volume: 250

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4000
Last: 0.6100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rafael Jodar wins set 1 in the Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Marrakech Semifinal, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:10:02Z

Reasoning: Winning the match does not imply winning set 1 (a player can lose set 1 and still win the match). Winning set 1 does not imply winning the match (a player can win set 1 and lose the match). No logical implication exists in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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