Pair #695

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BGRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2523

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-BGRI

Will Ben Griffin lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5484

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:06:37Z

Reasoning: The Valspar is not a major. Leading Round 1 at Valspar has no logical connection to winning a major tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.73% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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