Pair #6921

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-CYOU

Valero Texas Open: Will Carson Young finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Carson Young
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 211

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Carson Young finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-CYOU

Valero Texas Open: Will Carson Young make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Carson Young
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 353

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Carson Young has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:09:23Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in the tournament requires having made the cut after Round 2 and completing all rounds. Therefore a top-5 finish necessarily implies making the cut. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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