Pair #6916

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-SRYD

Will Sam Ryder lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 29551

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Ryder is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-SRYD

Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2205

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Ryder finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:09:23Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not guarantee a top-5 finish — a player can lead at the halfway point and fall out of the top 5 over Rounds 3 and 4. Conversely, finishing top 5 does not require leading after Round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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