Pair #691

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-BGRI

Valspar Championship: Will Ben Griffin finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8877

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-BGRI

Valspar Championship: Will Ben Griffin finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11036

YES ask: 0.4600
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:06:37Z

Reasoning: If Ben Griffin finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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