Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-VATO26-ATOS
Valero Texas Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 267
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ATOS
Valero Texas Open: Will Alejandro Tosti make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 222
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alejandro Tosti has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:08:42Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 requires completing the tournament, which means the player must have made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 5 finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.9900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A