Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VATO26-ATOS
Valero Texas Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 749
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ATOS
Valero Texas Open: Will Alejandro Tosti make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 222
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alejandro Tosti has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:08:42Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 requires completing the tournament, which means the player must have made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.9900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A