Pair #6900

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-ATOS

Valero Texas Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1942

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ATOS

Valero Texas Open: Will Alejandro Tosti make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 222

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:08:42Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 requires completing the tournament, which means the player must have made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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