Pair #690

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BGRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2523

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Ben Griffin wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-BGRI

Valspar Championship: Will Ben Griffin finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11036

YES ask: 0.4600
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ben Griffin finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:06:37Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major. Finishing top 20 at Valspar has no logical connection to winning a major, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -45.82% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4300
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -50.10% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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