Pair #69

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM-DEN

What will be LeBron James's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNBA
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z
Volume: 17875

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If LeBron James's next team is Denver before Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN

Will Denver have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6149

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:00:32Z

Reasoning: These concern entirely different sports (NBA basketball vs. NFL football). LeBron joining the NBA's Denver Nuggets has no logical bearing on the NFL's Denver Broncos having the best record in 2026-27. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -19.50% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: 145
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -23.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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