Pair #6899

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-ATOS

Will Alejandro Tosti win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 616

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ATOS

Valero Texas Open: Will Alejandro Tosti make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 222

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:08:42Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament requires playing all four rounds, which means the player must have made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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