Pair #6897

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-DTHO

Valero Texas Open: Will Davis Thompson finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 397

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Thompson finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-DTHO

Valero Texas Open: Will Davis Thompson finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1429

YES ask: 0.7000
NO ask: 0.3400
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Thompson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:08:42Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 5 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not require finishing top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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