Pair #6884

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-ASMO

Will Austin Smotherman lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4810

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ASMO

Valero Texas Open: Will Austin Smotherman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3541

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:08:22Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 means the player has completed Round 2 and is at the top of the leaderboard, which logically means they made the cut (the cut is determined after Round 2). Making the cut does not imply leading after Round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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