Pair #6881

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-ASMO

Will Austin Smotherman lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4810

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-ASMO

Will Austin Smotherman win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 653597

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:08:22Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 2 (a player can win from behind), and leading after Round 2 does not guarantee winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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