Pair #6880

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-ASMA

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Smalley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 375

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ASMA

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Smalley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 817

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:08:22Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 logically requires having made the cut. However, making the cut does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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