Pair #688

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-BGRI

Valspar Championship: Will Ben Griffin finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11036

YES ask: 0.4600
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-BGRI

Will Ben Griffin win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2258339

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:06:37Z

Reasoning: These are entirely different tournaments. Finishing top 20 at Valspar has no logical connection to winning the Masters, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5920
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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